World History: Firestorms: The Bombing of Civilians in World War II

U.S. History: Choices: Truman, Hirohito, and the Atomic Bomb

U.S. Government: New Threats to Nuclear Non- Proliferation

Firestorms: The Bombing of Civilians
in World War II

Before World War II, most nations condemned targeting civilians in bombing raids. As the war went on, the nations at war expanded their bombing targets from military to industrial ones, then to workers' houses, and finally to entire cities and their civilian populations.

In the late afternoon of April 26, 1937, German bombers and other warplanes attacked Guernica, a town of about 7,000 persons in northern Spain. This raid was part of the Spanish Civil War , fought just before World War II. The Spanish Republic was battling rebels led by Spanish General Francisco Franco. Hitler had sent a special air force unit to Spain to aid Franco and to test new military aircraft and bombing tactics.

In the assault on Guernica, German pilots left a small munitions factory and other possible military targets untouched. They aimed their explosive and incendiary (fire) bombs into the center of the town. A squadron of experimental aircraft dropped the first bombs on the plaza in front of the railroad station filled with war refugees. An eyewitness described what happened:

A group of women and children. They were lifted high into the air, maybe 20 feet or so, and they started to break up. Legs, arms, heads, and bits and pieces flying everywhere.

Another wave of heavy bombers followed, destroying most of Guernica's buildings, even a church and hospital. People were blown up in their houses, crushed by collapsing structures, and set afire in the streets. A third wave of fighter planes then machine-gunned terrified men, women, and children as they ran for their lives. About 1,000 civilians were slaughtered during the three-hour assault.

Accounts of the attack on Guernica in French newspapers shocked the world. For the first time in history, bombing from the air had destroyed an entire town. The intentional slaughter of innocent people so enraged Pablo Picasso, the Spanish artist, that he immediately went to work on a painting based on the bombing attack. The painting, which he titled "Guernica," became an icon for the terror experienced by civilians in war.

But the attack on Guernica turned out to be only a preview of a new type of war. In this new "total war," military strategists purposely tried to destroy entire cities and their civilian populations.

Civilian Bombing and the Laws of War

Attempts to control warfare from the air occurred as early as 1899. European powers agreed at The Hague (a Dutch city) to prohibit dropping explosives "from balloons or by other new methods of a similar nature." The Hague Convention of 1907 went further by banning bombardments "by whatever means" on "undefended" towns.

World War I saw the first civilian casualties from air bombing. In 1915, the first-reported victim was an English child killed by a bomb dropped from a German zeppelin (an airship more rigid and larger than a blimp). Throughout the war, zeppelin and airplane attacks on English and German cities killed almost 2,000 civilians.

After World War I, European and American military strategists debated what would happen if civilians became the main targets of air-bombing attacks. An influential Italian military writer, General Giulio Douhet, actually argued for the sustained bombing of civilians. He predicted that they would become quickly demoralized by such bombing and would force their leaders to surrender.

Despite the theories of Douhet, most at this time felt that bombing civilians was uncivilized and should be prohibited. In 1923, Britain, France, Italy, Japan, and the United States agreed to a set of rules for air warfare. One article prohibited bombing from the air "for the purpose of terrorizing the civilian population . . . or of injuring noncombatants. . . ." The participating governments, however, never ratified these rules, so they were not legally binding. At the Geneva Disarmament Conference of 1932, most of the world's powers agreed that air attacks on civilians violated the laws of war. But the conference broke up before approving a final agreement.

In the years leading up to World War II, Japan became the first power to attack civilians from the air. In 1932, Japanese warplanes bombed a worker district in Shanghai, China, an incident that produced worldwide outrage. The outrage did not stop Japan from bombing civilian areas of other Chinese cities.

In 1936, Italian dictator Mussolini ordered an attack on the largely defenseless east African country of Ethiopia. When Mussolini's warplanes struck the capital city, causing many civilian casualties, the world again condemned the slaughter of innocent people. The following year, the Germans bombed Guernica.

Along with many other nations, the United States denounced the Japanese, Italian, and German bombing of civilians as "contrary to principles of law and humanity." But the terror bombing of civilians was only beginning.

"Precision" vs. "Area" Bombing

Hitler introduced a new form of aggression in 1939. He ordered his military to attack Poland, thus starting World War II in Europe. "Blitzkrieg" soon came to mean lightning-fast assaults, not only by land troops and tank divisions, but also by warplanes bombing both military and civilian targets. The Germans hit the Polish capital of Warsaw especially hard, with indiscriminate bombing killing thousands of civilians.

In May 1940, the Nazis invaded the Netherlands on their way to France. Easily overcoming Dutch defenders, the Germans still bombed the center of Rotterdam with explosive and fire bombs, killing tens of thousands.

From fall 1940 through spring 1941, Hitler's air force struck London and other English cities with terrifying night bombing raids. The bombing of London, the main target of German planes, cost the lives of 30,000 people.

Driven from the continent, the British could only strike back by mounting their own bombing campaign against the Germans. At first, the Royal Air Force (RAF) attempted to bomb only specific German military and industrial targets in daytime raids. But the lack of fighter-plane support made these raids risky, and bombs often missed their precise targets because of poor bombsights.

In February 1942, the British abandoned their "precision bombing" strategy. For the rest of the war, the British concentrated on the systematic widespread destruction of German cities by RAF nighttime air raids, a strategy called "area bombing." One reason the British took this fateful step was to "dehouse" the German people, which hopefully would shatter their morale and will to continue the war.

The clearest demonstration of the destructiveness of British area bombing occurred in 1943 during three night raids on Hamburg, Germany. On the second night of bombing, something unexpected happened. The fire bombs dropped by 731 RAF bombers started thousands of fires. They merged to create a huge firestorm, sucking up oxygen and generating hurricane force winds. Many who did not burn to death were asphyxiated in underground bomb shelters. The firestorm killed more than 40,000 people in one night.

When the United States entered the war in Europe, its Army Air Corps had better fighter-plane support and bombsights than the RAF. It could maintain its longstanding policy of daytime precision bombing. The Americans believed that the most effective way to destroy the enemy's ability to continue the war was to strike specific targets like aircraft factories and oil refineries.

Following German rocket attacks against London late in the war, almost 800 RAF bombers bombed Dresden, a center of German art, architecture, and culture. It had been untouched by previous Allied bombing raids. The attack's stated purpose was to disrupt German troop transports to the Russian front. But at least 35,000 civilians died, mainly by inhaling toxic gases created by the second major firestorm of the war. American bombers killed more civilians the next day when they had difficulty hitting their targets through all the smoke.

Firestorms in Japan

After Germany surrendered in May 1945, America wanted to quickly end the war against Japan. As plans went ahead for a costly invasion of the Japanese islands, Major General Curtis LeMay took command of the bombing campaign against Japan, which had started in late 1944. Having studied British area-bombing tactics, LeMay decided to adopt them in a final effort to force the Japanese to surrender.

On the night of March 9-10, 1945, LeMay's B-29 bombers attacked Tokyo, a city of 6 million people. Nearly 600 bombers dropped 1,665 tons of fire bombs on the Japanese capital, destroying 16 square miles of the city. The resulting firestorm killed 100,000 people, more than died at Hiroshima or Nagasaki from atomic bombs a few months later. Most of the victims were women, children, and old men. The B-29 crew members put on oxygen masks to keep from vomiting at the smell of burning human flesh.

LeMay's planes continued firebombing Tokyo and more than 60 other Japanese cities in the following months. He thought he could end the war quickly by destroying Japan's economy and crushing the morale of the Japanese people. LeMay argued against using atomic bombs. He believed that his firebombing tactics would force Japan to surrender before American forces were scheduled to invade the homeland.

On August 6, 1945, one B-29 dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima, creating a firestorm that wiped out 70 percent of the city and killed 70,000 Japanese. The atomic bomb attack on Nagasaki three days later was somewhat less destructive due to the geographical features of the city. After some hesitation, Japan finally surrendered. The decision to use atomic weapons was fairly easy for American political and military leaders, given the hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths already caused by the bombing of cities during the war. The outrage about such killing at the beginning of the war had been numbed by the horror of "total war" and the desire to quickly bring it all to an end.

The Allied area bombing of civilians played an important role in undermining the will of the German and Japanese people to continue the war. But unlike the predictions of military strategists before the war, this did not happen quickly. For a long time, the bombing of German and Japanese civilians only stiffened their resolve to fight on. They wanted to surrender only after their countries lay in ruins, hundreds of thousands had perished, and all hope of victory was lost.

After World War II

Following World War II, the Cold War developed between the United States and Soviet Union. It never erupted into actual warfare, but the possibility of World War III loomed. The two nations engaged in a nuclear arms race. Each targeted the other's civilian population, aiming thermonuclear missiles at cities. The massive destructiveness of nuclear weapons made avoiding civilians impossible. It also made nuclear war unwinnable. The standoff between the two nuclear superpowers ended in 1991, when the Soviet Union disbanded. Nuclear war had been avoided, but the threat remains that some nation might use them someday.

Although no nuclear war has occurred since World War II, many limited, non-nuclear wars have taken place. America has engaged in wars in Korea , Vietnam , Iraq , and Kosovo. It has never again targeted civilians as it did during World War II, but many civilians have died in these wars. Their deaths usually resulted from mistake, accident, or being too close to a military target. With advances in technology, weapons have grown more accurate. The "precision bombing" of World War II often missed their targets. Today's cruise missile usually hits its mark. But even with today's "smart bombs" and precise targeting, civilians still die.

The aftermath of World War II brought more attempts to protect civilians in war. The Geneva Convention of 1949 stated that civilian hospitals "may in no circumstances be the object of attack . . . ." The U.N. General Assembly adopted several resolutions, which are not legally binding but do carry the weight of international opinion. A 1961 resolution declared that the "use of nuclear and thermo-nuclear weapons" violates the "spirit, letter and aims of the United Nations." Another resolution in 1968 proclaimed that no nation should "launch attacks against . . . civilian populations . . . ." The World Court in 1996 made an advisory opinion on nuclear weapons . It ruled that "the threat or use of nuclear weapons would generally be contrary to the rules of international law . . . ." But it stated that international law was unclear on whether they could be used "in an extreme circumstance of self-defence, in which the very survival of a State would be at stake."

For Discussion and Writing

1. That were the arguments for "precision" and "area" bombing in World War II? Which one do you think was the better strategy? Why?
   
   
2. Maj. Gen. Curtis LeMay said after the_March 9-10 Tokyo bombing, "There are no innocent civilians. . . . The entire population got into the act and worked to make those airplanes or munitions . . . men, women, and children." Do you agree or disagree with LeMay? Why?
   
   
3. Do you think international law should define rules of war? Why or why not?

For Further Information

History of the Spanish Civil War

The United States Strategic Bombing Survey (European War) A U.S. government report on the air war in Europe Report issued on September 30, 1945.

United States Strategic Bombing Survey (Pacific War) Issued on July 1, 1946

International Law on the Bombing of Civilians

ACTIVITY: A New Hague Convention

One way that international law is created is by nations signing treaties and charters that bind them to follow particular rules. Throughout the 20th century, international conferences have attempted to write rules protecting civilians in time of war. In this activity, students will role play nations attending a new Hague Convention. It has been convened to clarify and enact international laws protecting civilians in wartime.

Form small groups. Each group should:

A. Review and discuss the rules protecting civilians mentioned in the article.

B. Write a new rule or rules it thinks should be_adopted.

C. Present to the whole class its rules and the reasons for them.

Choices: Truman, Hirohito, and the Atomic Bomb

In summer 1945, President Truman focused on two choices to end the war with Japan: invade or use the atomic bomb. Truman ordered the bomb dropped on two Japanese cities. His decision created a controversy that is with us today.

On August 6, 1945, the world changed forever. A single American B-29 bomber, the Enola Gay, dropped one atomic bomb on Hiroshima, Japan. About 70,000 persons, some military but mostly civilian, perished in the blast and the firestorm that resulted from it. Another 50,000 died later from injuries and radiation sickness. Three days after Hiroshima, some 60,000 Japanese died when a plane dropped a second bomb on Nagasaki.

The intentional bombing of civilians had been going on for quite some time--first by the Germans and Japanese and then by the British and Americans. About 100,000 Japanese died during American fire bombing raids on Tokyo five months before Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But what made atomic bombs even more frightful were the largely unknown short- and long-term effects of radiation and their capacity for worldwide destruction.

Truman: "The Most Terrible Bomb"

Shortly after Hitler began World War II in Europe, physicists Leo Szilard and Albert Einstein wrote a letter to President Roosevelt. They urged him to set up a project to develop an atomic bomb, which they believed Germany was already working on. Roosevelt initiated the "Manhattan Project" in 1941. He placed General Leslie R. Groves in command of a group of scientists headed by J. Robert Oppenheimer. From the very beginning, almost everyone involved in this project believed that America would use the atomic bomb to end the war.

When Roosevelt died on April 12, 1945, Vice President Harry S. Truman became president. Unfortunately, Roosevelt had never included his vice president in discussions about the atomic bomb. Two weeks after becoming president, he was finally fully briefed about "the gadget," as General Groves called the bomb.

The bomb was not ready for testing before Germany unconditionally surrendered on May 7, 1945. Seeking advice, as the war in the Pacific continued, Truman authorized a group of civilian leaders and scientists to make recommendations on its use. Headed by Secretary of War Henry L. Stimson, the so-called Interim Committee decided to reaffirm the long-held policy of using the atomic bomb when it was ready.

The Interim Committee also recommended against giving the Japanese any warning or demonstrating the bomb on some uninhabited area. Committee members wanted to assure a total surprise to shock the Japanese government and people into quickly surrendering. The committee agreed that the "most desirable target would be a vital war plant employing a large number of workers and closely surrounded by workers' houses."

The Interim Committee additionally concluded that using the atomic bomb to end the war would make the Soviet Union "more manageable" in the postwar world.

After being briefed on the Interim Committee's recommendations, Truman met with his top military advisors on June 11. Since America had not yet tested the bomb, this group went ahead with plans for an invasion of Japan. Truman wanted to know the number of expected casualties (dead, wounded, and missing). The casualty estimates for the projected invasion varied greatly and became the subject of much controversy after the war. The Army-Navy estimate for the invasion was about 200,000 American casualties, which would have included 50,000 killed.

Dreading the idea of an invasion of Japan, Truman traveled to Potsdam, Germany, to meet with the other Allied leaders in mid-July 1945. Truman was anxious to get Joseph Stalin, the leader of the Soviet Union, to enter the war against Japan. Stalin had previously promised to do this after Germany's defeat even though he had signed a non-aggression treaty with Japan early in the war.

During the conference, the Americans received a message stating that a bomb had been successfully tested in New Mexico. Truman's attitude brightened, and he no longer seemed so intent on pressuring the Russians to declare war on Japan.

While still at Potsdam, Truman authorized the military to use atomic bombs "when ready but not sooner than August 2." Two atomic bombs were available, and two more were nearing completion. The war planners had selected four target cities including Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Neither city contained major military or industrial installations. They chose them mainly because conventional bombing had already leveled other major cities.

No real debate ever took place among top U.S. military and civilian leaders on whether to drop on Japan what Truman described in his diary as "the most terrible bomb in the history of the world." Only a small group of scientists involved in the Manhattan Project opposed dropping it. They circulated a petition warning of a nuclear arms race with the Soviet Union after the war if America used atomic bombs against Japan. Ironically, the scientist that led this petition effort, Leo Szilard, had also written the letter with Einstein asking Roosevelt to build the bomb.

At the end of the Potsdam Conference on July 26, the Allies at war with Japan issued a proclamation. They demanded the "unconditional surrender" of the Japanese armed forces. This meant that the Allies would not consider negotiating peace terms. The declaration also called for the Japanese people to form a new government, which put the future of the Japanese emperor in doubt. It did not mention the atomic bomb or the pending entry of the Soviet Union into the war. But the declaration warned that if Japan did not immediately surrender unconditionally, it would face "prompt and utter destruction."

Hirohito: "We Must Bow to the Inevitable"

Japan's leaders knew nothing about the atomic bomb and little about other U.S. war plans. But Truman and his advisers knew something about what the Japanese leaders were saying and doing. American intelligence had broken Japan's secret code.

By summer 1945, Japan was a nation on the edge of defeat. Its navy hardly existed. Its best airplane pilots had been killed. Its large armies lay scattered and isolated throughout Asia. The American naval blockade of Japan had stopped most shipping, which created major shortages of food and oil. Continuing American bombing raids had leveled most major Japanese cities, killing 200,000 persons.

Still, Japan fought on. From April to June 1944 during the U.S. invasion of Okinawa, an island 400 miles from the Japanese homeland, Japanese forces waged a fierce and desperate battle. Inspired by warrior traditions, the soldiers held on for weeks preferring to die in suicide charges or by their own hand than to surrender. The navy launched waves of suicide airplane attacks on the U.S. ships supporting the invasion. Even many Japanese civilians living on the island killed themselves to avoid capture by the Americans. In finally conquering the island, U.S. forces suffered 48,000 casualties.

In spite of the loss of Okinawa and overwhelming U.S. military superiority, the Japanese government was deadlocked about what to do. On the one hand, Prime Minister Kantaro Suzuki took office in April 1945 with the goal of ending the hopeless war effort. Suzuki, his foreign minister, and others in the government attempted to get the Soviet Union to act as a go-between in negotiating conditions of surrender to end the war with the United States, Britain, and China. Suzuki was not aware that Stalin had already decided to declare war on Japan in a few months.

Other members of the Japanese government and military leadership strongly opposed surrendering. They argued that Japan should accept "the honorable death of a hundred million" rather than give up. They moved ahead with plans for defending the homeland including the use of 350,000 troops, preparing thousands of pilots and planes for kamikaze attacks and mobilization of hundreds of thousands of civilians, including women, as home defense fighters. They hoped that these measures could repel an American invasion and force the United States to end the war on terms more beneficial to Japan.

Considered a sacred figure in Japanese society, Emperor Hirohito normally remained above government politics. Throughout most of the war, Hirohito never openly opposed any decisions made by Japan's leaders. For instance, Hirohito was present when the decision was made to attack Pearl Harbor, but he remained silent. By early 1945, however, Hirohito had concluded that there should be "a swift termination of the war." When Okinawa fell to the Americans in June, he sent a personal representative to Moscow seeking terms of peace from the Allies.

By August, time had run out for the divided Japanese government and Emperor Hirohito. On August 6, the Enola Gay dropped the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima. The political and military leaders still could not agree what to do. Hirohito, now speaking more forcefully than ever before, declared, "We must bow to the inevitable."

On August 9, disaster struck from two directions. The Soviet Union declared war on Japan, and the United States dropped the second atomic bomb on Nagasaki. The government remained paralyzed. The leaders could agree on only one thing: The emperor's position in Japanese society must remain at all cost.

Finally, Prime Minister Suzuki took the unheard-of step of calling upon the emperor himself to break the deadlock between those favoring surrender and those who wanted to fight on. After listening to both sides, Hirohito said that "continuing the war can only mean destruction for the nation." He then declared that Japan must accept surrender.

On August 10, Suzuki sent a notice of surrender to the Allies with the condition that the emperor would remain as the "sovereign ruler" of Japan. The Allies accepted on one condition. The emperor must yield authority to the supreme commander of the forces occupying Japan until a new government was established "by the truly expressed will of the people." Some Japanese leaders wanted to reject this requirement. But Hirohito announced that he agreed to the Allied terms. All top civilian and military leaders then pledged to obey the emperor's wishes. The war was over.

Other Choices

The war was over, but the debate over how it ended had just begun. In the years that followed, President Truman steadfastly defended his decision to use the atomic bombs. He argued that the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki forced the Japanese to surrender quickly, thus avoiding an invasion that would have cost the lives of thousands of Americans. "I'd do it again," Truman often said.

Truman's advisers had focused mainly on the choice between an invasion and dropping the bomb. From hindsight, scholars researching wartime documents have determined that there were several other options for ending the war:

1. Continue the conventional bombings and blockade. Truman could have relied on the relentless and devastating B-29 firebombing raids on Japan's cities combined with the naval blockade to wear down Japanese resistance and force their surrender.

Scholars critical of this approach point out that strategic bombing may have taken some time to force a surrender putting American pilots, troops and sailors at risk. In addition, many more Japanese civilians may have died using this option than were killed in the two atomic raids.

2. Demonstrate the atomic bomb. By demonstrating the atomic bomb, Truman could have shown the Japanese leaders, including Hirohito, that their nation faced total destruction if they did not surrender immediately.

Other scholars point out that the U.S. had only two atomic bombs ready for use and two more in development. The technology was brand new and delivering the bombs was very difficult. A failure of the demonstration might have actually encouraged Japanese resistance and in any case would have given them a chance to take countermeasures.

3. Wait for the Russians. Truman could have waited a few more weeks for the Russians to declare war on Japan. The threat of invasion and occupation by both the Americans and Russians may have had an even more shocking effect on the Japanese leadership than the atomic bombings.

Scholars critical of this approach say it is not clear what Japan might have done in response to a declaration of war by the Soviets. Japanese forces in Asia were already stranded and largely abandoned. It would have taken Soviet forces some time to threaten mainland Japan, and the Japanese already faced overwhelming force from the Americans. Some scholars believe that the United States still would have been faced with an invasion of Japan and the Soviets would have had more time to bring more of Asia under Communist domination.

4. Negotiate peace. Truman knew that Suzuki and Hirohito were trying to find a way to negotiate an end to the war. He could have discussed peace terms with them, but instead refused to consider anything but "unconditional surrender."

Official allied policy was for unconditional surrender for Japan, just as it had been for the Nazi regime. Some scholars question whether arranging negotiations might not have strengthened the war faction of the Japanese government by showing weakness on the part of the allies. They also might have encouraged greater demands on the part of the Japanese, including preservation of the military, and given them more time to prepare for invasion.

5. Keep the emperor. The Japanese leaders might have decided to surrender earlier if Truman and the Allies had assured them that they would neither abolish the position of the emperor nor try Hirohito as a war criminal.

Some scholars point out that the Japanese agreed to surrender only after the bomb was dropped and doubt that the concession about the emperor by itself would have led to immediate surrender.

In the end, Truman concluded that none of these choices would have ended the war as quickly as an atomic attack. At the time, Truman was under tremendous pressure from the American public to end the long, horrible war against a hated enemy as fast as possible and "bring the boys home." Few of the thousands of American troops being transferred from Europe to prepare for Japan's invasion criticized Truman's decision. For many, it saved their lives.

Did Truman make the right decision? More than 50 years later, this question remains unsettled.

For Discussion and Writing

1. Why did President Truman order the use of atomic bombs against Japan?
   
   
2. What role did Emperor Hirohito play in the surrender of Japan?
   
   
3. Some have argued that there really was very little difference in the use of atomic bombs and conventional bombs against Japan. Do you agree or disagree? Why?

For Further Information

Hiroshima & Nagasaki

"The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb" Gar Alperovitz and the H-net Debate

H I R O S H I M A: Recommended Books For Students

Documents Relating to American Foreign Policy: Hiroshima

Documents Relating to the Development of the Atomic Bomb and Its use on Hiroshima and Nagasaki

ACTIVITY: Choices: Ending the War with Japan

In this activity, students will role play members of a committee of advisers to President Truman. This committee must debate the choices and then make a recommendation to the president on how to end the war.

A. Form small groups and review the president's options: (1) Continue the conventional bombings and blockade; (2) Demonstrate the atomic bomb; (3) Wait for the Russians; (4) Negotiate peace; (5) Keep the emperor; or (6) Use the atomic bombs.

B. After each group meets, the committee as a whole should discuss and decide on a recommendation. It may be one of the choices listed in the article or some variation or combination of them.

New Threats to Nuclear Non-Proliferation

Today, with the Cold War over and a Non-Proliferation Treaty in place, much has been done to stop the spread of nuclear weapons. But some trouble spots remain.

At the end of World War II, the United States alone possessed atomic weapons. In 1949, however, the Soviet Union tested its first atomic bomb. This set off a nuclear arms race with the United States lasting 40 years. Each country eventually produced more than 30,000 nuclear bombs and missile warheads. A recent estimate placed the total cost of the American nuclear-weapons program at $5 trillion.

Other nations also became nuclear powers. In 1952, Great Britain exploded its first atomic bomb. In 1960, France tested a nuclear device, and in 1964 China followed suit. All kept adding nuclear weapons to their arsenals.

The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 nearly resulted in nuclear war between United States and the Soviet Union. The following year, the two superpowers, along with Britain, made the first attempt to control nuclear arms development. The three nuclear nations signed a treaty promising not to test atomic weapons in the atmosphere or on land. But the treaty still permitted underground testing.

After China tested its first atomic device in 1964, the nuclear powers initiated negotiations that finally resulted in the Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1968 (in force on March 5, 1970). The NPT takes the form of a series of promises between those nations already possessing nuclear weapons and those nations without them.

Those nations possessing nuclear weapons promise to:

1. not help nations without nuclear weapons acquire or develop them;
   
   
2. place security safeguards on their nuclear_materials and technology to prevent their export to non-nuclear weapons nations;
   
   
3. share nuclear technology for peaceful purposes with all treaty members;
   
   
4. work to end the nuclear arms race and reduce their nuclear-weapons stockpiles.

Those nations not possessing nuclear weapons promise to:

1. not acquire or develop nuclear weapons;
   
   
2. accept security safeguards, including U.N. inspections, on all domestically produced or imported nuclear materials and technology to assure they are not being used for military purposes;
   
   
3. place security safeguards on their nuclear_materials and technology to prevent prohibited exports to other non-nuclear weapons nations;
   
   
4. share nuclear technology for peaceful purposes with all treaty members.

Today, about 180 countries, including all five original nuclear powers, have signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Non-nuclear weapons members of the NPT must agree to accept the system of safeguards and inspections of the International Atomic Energy Agency. This independent U.N. agency requires two things from non-nuclear nations. First, they must declare what nuclear materials and equipment they possess. Second, they must submit to regular inspections to make sure nothing they possess is being diverted to weapons development. Most of the treaty members that possess nuclear weapons have also agreed to observe strict security safeguards on such exports as waste from nuclear power plants that could be reprocessed into weapons-grade material.

The Breakup of the Soviet Union

The breakup of the Soviet Union into 15 independent nations in 1991 brought an end to the 40-year Cold War nuclear arms race. The Start II Treaty of 1993 between the United States and Russia greatly reduced the number of nuclear warheads in both countries. The following year, the two powers agreed to stop targeting each other's territory with ballistic missiles. The former Cold War adversaries also declared a suspension of all forms of nuclear testing.

But there was a negative side to the Soviet breakup. Nuclear missiles capable of reaching the United States still existed not only in Russia, but also in three new nations once part of the USSR: Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. The United States also grew concerned that these three nuclear nations, as well as Russia, could not effectively keep their nuclear material and technology secure from improper exports or even smuggling. Also troubling was the potential emigration of former Soviet scientists to nations seeking to develop nuclear weapons. To help address these issues, the U.S. Congress granted $800 million in aid to help the former Soviet states "denuclearize."

Iraq

Following the Persian Gulf War in 1991, U.N. inspectors discovered that Iraq had established a massive nuclear-weapons program. It was only a few years away from producing an atomic explosive device. Even more shocking, Iraq had signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty. It had proceeded with a secret nuclear program even though NPT safeguards were in place and inspections were occurring. Iraq had been illegally importing nuclear materials and equipment for years from western nations, including the United States.

The United Nations instituted widespread inspections of Iraqi installations and strengthened safeguards preventing international trade in nuclear materials and technology. This seemed to put the Non-Proliferation Treaty back on track. But in 1998, Iraq's leader, Saddam Hussein, refused to permit U.N. inspectors into certain areas. This led to the removal of the inspectors from Iraq and to U.S. and British bombings of suspected nuclear facilities. In spite of continued bombing, the lack of on-site inspections makes it difficult to prevent Hussein from continuing his pursuit of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.

North Korea

The Korean peninsula is divided into South Korea and Communist North Korea. From 1950 to 1953, war raged between North and South, with Chinese troops aiding the North and U.S. troops (acting on behalf of the United Nations) helping the South. Nearly 40,000 American troops remain stationed in South Korea.

North Korea signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 1986, but delayed agreeing to required inspections and other safeguards on its nuclear program. Negotiations among the United States, South Korea, and North Korea ended with an agreement in 1991 making the entire Korean peninsula a nuclear weapons-free zone.

In 1992, North Korea signed an agreement allowing U.N. inspections of its nuclear facilities, which had been suspected of producing materials for nuclear weapons. But when the inspectors arrived, North Korea denied them access to some installations. Meanwhile, satellite pictures revealed evidence of continued nuclear-weapons development. In 1993, North Korea withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but then quickly suspended its withdrawal.

In 1994, the United States and North Korea reached another agreement. In exchange for the North Koreans freezing their nuclear-weapons program, the Americans promised to provide aid for oil imports. But four years later, the United States detected the North Koreans constructing a huge new underground nuclear complex. The famine-plagued Communist country then demanded massive food shipments before it would allow inspections of this underground facility. In March 1999, the Clinton administration agreed to give North Korea $60 million in food assistance.

India and Pakistan

When India gained its independence in 1947 from Great Britain, it was carved into two countries--India, with a mostly Hindu population, and Pakistan, with an overwhelmingly Muslim population. The two South Asian countries, among the poorest in the world, have never gotten along well. They have already fought three conventional wars and almost fought a fourth in 1990. Hindu-Muslim religious hatreds continue to fuel longstanding border disputes. Currently, the two countries are engaging in a regional nuclear arms race. Neither country has signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but both have agreed not to attack each other's nuclear installations.

India exploded its first nuclear device in 1974. When India conducted new nuclear tests in May 1998, Pakistan followed with its first test explosions. In April 1999, India and then Pakistan tested missiles that could hurl nuclear warheads deep inside each other's territory.

Unlike the United States and Soviet Union during the Cold War, India and Pakistan are next door to one another, making missile flight times extremely short. Neither country has the careful controls that the Americans and Soviets developed to prevent accidental missile launchings.

The United States imposed trade and economic aid restrictions on both nations after the round of nuclear tests in 1998. President Clinton said at that time, "I cannot believe that we are about to start the 21st century by having the Indian Subcontinent repeat the worst mistakes of the 20th century." A full-scale nuclear war could leave 100 million dead plus radioactive fallout throughout the rest of Asia and possibly the world.

Is the NPT Working?

Although Iraq, North Korea, India and Pakistan, and a few other countries have the potential for starting a nuclear war, most of the world's nations today have rejected atomic weapons. South Africa had developed a half-dozen atomic bombs. But in 1991, it decided to dismantle them all, the first nuclear-weapons nation to do this. Argentina and Brazil decided not to proceed with their nuclear-weapons programs. Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine have all agreed to give up their nuclear weapons and sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In 1995, 178 nations agreed to extend the NPT indefinitely. The next year, most nations in the world, including the United States, signed a treaty banning all tests of nuclear weapons.

At the end of the century, the Non-Proliferation Treaty seems to be containing the spread of nuclear arms. But just as the United States believed it was justified making and using atomic bombs to end World War II, almost any nation may feel equally compelled at some time in the future to build or acquire, and then use, the ultimate weapon.

For Discussion and Writing

1. What is the purpose of the Non-Proliferation Treaty? How is it enforced?
   
   
2. How did the breakup of the Soviet Union both strengthen and weaken efforts to control the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the world?
   
   
3. Which of the nations currently developing nuclear weapons do you think poses the greatest threat to the United States? Why?

For Further Information

Tracking Nuclear Proliferation: A Guide in Maps and Charts, 1998

Splitting The Atom: Nuclear Bombs, Non-Proliferation and Test Bans

Nuclear Proliferation Document Archive, Research Portals, Readings and Debates

Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Tests

Frontline: Russian Roulette: A Report on the Safety and Security of Russia's Nuclear Arsenal

Yahoo News

Iraq-U.S. Conflict

India-Pakistan Relations

North Korea

Russia

Washington Post: Former USSR Regional Coverage

Country Studies

ACTIVITY: Next Steps

In this activity, students decide which area presents the most danger and recommend steps the United States should take to reduce the danger of nuclear war in this area.

Form small groups. Each group should:

a. Review these four areas: (1) Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine; (2) Iraq; (3) North Korea; and (4) India and Pakistan.

b. Decide which area presents the most danger of nuclear war and why.

c. Make recommendations on what the United States should do to reduce the danger of nuclear war.

d. Present its decision and recommendations to the rest of the class.

Officers: Haley J. Fromholz, President; Marjorie S. Steinberg, President-Elect; Publications Committee: Jerome C. Byrne, Chairperson; Gerald Chaleff, Lee S. Edmond, Eugene R. Erbstoesser, Thomas Higgins, Patrick J. McDonough, Michael W. Monk, Hon. Margaret M. Morrow, Peggy Saferstein, Deborah S. Saxe, Marvin Sears, Lois Thompson, Carlton Varner. Staff: Todd Clark, Executive Director; Marshall L. Croddy, Director of Program and Materials Development; Carlton Martz, Writer; Bill Hayes, Editor; Andrew Costly, Production Manager; Michael W. Monk, CRF Board Reviewer.